You can head over to Contrapunto to participate in a poll about who you believe would win in match-ups between Norman Quijano of ARENA and either Oscar Ortiz or Salvador Sanchez Ceren of the FMLN. The box is halfway down the page on the right.
Out of 533 voters in the first poll, 499 believed that Ceren would emerge victorious over Quijano in 2014. Fewer people have participated in the second poll between Quijano and Ortiz but out of the 100 people that did, 83 said that Ortiz would win. Obviously it's not a representative sample or anything.
While I am not surprised that Contrapunto's readers thought that either FMLN candidate would win, I was surprised that they had more faith in Sanchez Ceren. Most people outside the FMLN would probably disagree. Ortiz is the more popular general candidate with a better chance at winning over moderates and those on the right who do not want to return to the ways of ARENA. It's just hard to see those people (about 30-40% of the voters) going with Sanchez Ceren.
Here was a result from February's Mitofsky poll.
While it's only one poll, it's going to be difficult for the FMLN to convince a majority of Salvadoran voters to support Sanchez Ceren. He's already well known and has a pretty high unfavorability rating.
Is it 2006 all over again? It's too early to tell, but Sanchez Ceren has the same positives (he's popular within the party and will satisfy the base) and negatives (few people outside the party support him) as Schafik Handal. And we all know what happened to the Handal candidacy.
A few days ago, Contrapunto reported that Sanchez Ceren had already been selected as the FMLN's 2014 presidential candidate but since then other news stories have questioned whether it's a done deal. I imagine that internally the FMLN is still divided over going with the candidate with the best shot at winning, but who is not as committed to the FMLN project as the hardliners versus a candidate with whom it will be more difficult to win but whose administration would not be as frustrating as the one they are living through with Mauricio Funes right now.
Is it 2006 all over again? It's too early to tell, but Sanchez Ceren has the same positives (he's popular within the party and will satisfy the base) and negatives (few people outside the party support him) as Schafik Handal. And we all know what happened to the Handal candidacy.
A few days ago, Contrapunto reported that Sanchez Ceren had already been selected as the FMLN's 2014 presidential candidate but since then other news stories have questioned whether it's a done deal. I imagine that internally the FMLN is still divided over going with the candidate with the best shot at winning, but who is not as committed to the FMLN project as the hardliners versus a candidate with whom it will be more difficult to win but whose administration would not be as frustrating as the one they are living through with Mauricio Funes right now.
What's your take?
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