Thursday, April 12, 2012

Sanchez Ceren likely FMLN presidential candidate

According to a report in ContraPunto, the FMLN is prepared to select Salvador Sanchez Ceren as the party's candidate for the 2014 presidential elections. It doesn't come as much of a surprise no matter how much I would have liked them to strongly consider another candidate (COHA looks like it will have an article out on him soon).

At the XXVI national convention in 2010, the FMLN reiterated the strategy that it had more or less been following since 2005. Here's what I wrote at the time.
In preparation for the 2012 elections, the FMLN is calling for a "national pact to transform El Salvador." Jose Luis...Merino has clearly stated that in 2009 Funes was chosen simply to alleviate the country's fears of an FMLN victory. Now that that fear has been overcome, the FMLN is ready to push an FMLN militant as president to lead them on the path towards socialismo cuscatleco in 2014 and beyond.
The FMLN's alliance with the Friends of Mauricio was a temporary one that was designed to help transition

the country to supporting an FMLN militant as president. While the Salvadoran voters rejected FMLN comandantes in 1999 and 2004, it's not certain that they will do so again. Things have changed since 2004. However, I don't think that Sanchez Ceren is the Frente's best choice to maximize its chances at victory. The FMLN has a solid 35% or so of the national vote. Sanchez Ceren makes it hard for the party to make it to 50%+1. And I'm not sure that a VP Violeta Menjívar is going to help make up the difference.

It doesn't look like some people in ARENA want Norman Quijano to be the party's candidate, but he would definitely have the advantage over Ceren. They just need to moderate their public stance and put up a stronger candidate than the unenthusiastic Rodrigo Avila they sent up to the plate in 2009.

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