El Salvador's FMLN wobbles, but doesn't fall down

I have a new post on my reactions to last week's elections in El Salvador. The post is entitled El Salvador's FMLN wobbles, but doesn't fall down. I think that it's the first title I provided that they actually liked enough to keep.

In the piece, I argue that that ARENA, the FMLN and GANA should be satisfied with their performance in the legislative elections and that GANA, rather than ARENA, is the real winner by a slight margin. While I wrote the piece last Monday and Tuesday, it only went up Saturday. However, I think that conclusions still hold.

When you think of all the reasons why the FMLN was going to do poorly, they're lucky that they only lost four seats.

1. Poor security situation
2. Poor economic situation
3. Divisions between the FMLN leadership and the base.
4. Disappointment with the manner in which the FMLN handled Decree 743, red alerts issued by Spain
5. An unpopular candidate for mayor of San Salvador
6. Outside candidates imposed by the FMLN on communities
7. Open-list voting while the FMLN told supporters just to vote party
8. The lack of advantages from 2009 - popular presidential candidate, unpopular ARENA candidate, frustration with ARENA's ability to resolve the country's problems.
9. improved internal cohesion
10. Really high number of deputies to begin with - the only way the party was likely to go was down.

The other parties had problems too but for all the problems surrounding the FMLN in this election, losing four seats wasn't that bad. 

I don't know for sure, but I think GANA might have picked up more of the FMLN's 2009 voters than it did of ARENA's 2009 voters. Given that GANA is on the right like ARENA, we sort of thought that they would pull away several traditional ARENA supporters. However, it's possible that they captured the support of independents and some on the right who had voted FMLN-Funes in 2009.

Tim and Voices from El Salvador also have interesting thoughts on the results.