Tuesday, March 20, 2012

El Salvador legislative vote since 1994

Here are the vote percentages for congress of the FMLN and ARENA since the 1994 elections. While the FMLN shouldn't be happy with its March 11th performance, I thought that it should be satisfied that it only lost four seats and that the ARENA and CN will not be able form a simple majority in the assembly. It shouldn't be happy with losing 140,000 votes but it could have been worse.

The FMLN's loss was ARENA's gain because the former second largest party is now the largest party. However, ARENA only picked up one seat in the congress compared to what it was elected with in 2009 and only captured one percent more of the national vote.

I'm still sticking with GANA as the winner. Unlike other "new" political parties, it survived the first election in which it competed. It picked up some of the FMLN's 2009 support and has the opportunity to play a decisive role in the congress and maybe even the 2014 election. There's a hefty portion of the electorate that does not necessarily want to support ARENA or the FMLN. I don't know why they would want to support Tony Saca's party given his terrible term as president, but so far they are willing to give him and GANA a chance.

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